Department of Economics
Saint
Louis University

Professor: Rapach
Fall 2008
ECON 420
Money and Banking


Chapter Outline for “Chapter 16—What Should Central Banks Do? Monetary Policy Goals, Strategy, and Tactics,” Frederic S. Mishkin, The Economics of Money, Banking, and Financial Markets, Eighth Edition (New York, N.Y.: Addison-Wesley, 2006)


THE PRICE STABILITY GOAL AND THE NOMINAL ANCHOR

price stability: defined as low and stable inflation by central bankers

The Role of a Nominal Anchor

nominal anchor: a nominal variable, such as the inflation rate or the money supply, which ties down the price level to achieve price stability

time-inconsistency problem: monetary policy conducted on a discretionary, day-by-day basis leads to poor long-run outcomes

The Time-Inconsistency Problem


OTHER GOALS OF MONETARY POLICY

High Employment

natural rate of unemployment: level of unemployment consistent with full employment at which the demand for labor equals the supply of labor

Economic Growth

Stability of Financial Markets

Interest-Rate Stability

Stability in Foreign Exchange Markets


SHOULD PRICE STABILITY BE THE PRIMARY GOAL OF MONETARY POLICY?

Hierarchical Versus Dual Mandates

hierarchical mandates: mandates which put the goal of price stability first, and then say that as long as it is achieved other goals can be pursued

dual mandate: mandate to achieve two co-equal objectives (price stability and maximum employment)

Price Stability as the Primary, Long-Run Goal of Monetary Policy


MONEY TARGETING

Monetary Targeting in the United States, Japan, and Germany

United States

Japan

Germany

Advantages of Monetary Targeting

Disadvantages of Monetary Targeting


INFLATION TARGETING

Inflation Targeting in New Zealand, Canada, and the United Kingdom

New Zealand

Canada

United Kingdom

See Figure 1

Advantages of Inflation Targeting

Disadvantages of Inflation Targeting

Delayed Signaling

Too Much Rigidity

Potential for Increased Output Fluctuations

Low Economic Growth


MONETARY POLICY WITH AN IMPLICIT NOMINAL ANCHOR

Advantages of the Fed’s Approach

Disadvantages of the Fed’s Approach


TACTICS: CHOOSING THE POLICY INSTRUMENT

policy instrument: a variable that responds to the central bank’s tools and indicates the stance (easy or tight) of monetary policy

intermediate target: stand between the policy instrument and the goals of monetary policy

See Figure 2

See Figure 3

Criteria for Choosing the Policy Instrument

Observability and Measurability

Controllability

Predictable Effect on Goals


THE TAYLOR RULE, NAIRU, AND THE PHILLIPS CURVE

Taylor rule: indicates that the federal (fed) funds rate should be set equal to the inflation rate plus an “equilibrium” real fed funds rate (the real fed funds rate that is consistent with full employment in the long run) plus a weighted average of two gaps: (1) an inflation gap, current inflation minus a target rate, and (2) an output gap, the percentage deviation of real GDP from an estimate of its potential full employment level

Federal fund rate target = inflation rate + equilibrium real fed funds rate + (1/2)(inflation gap) + (1/2)(output gap)

Phillips curve theory: indicates that changes in inflation are influenced by the state of the economy relative to its productive capacity, as well as other factors

NAIRU (nonaccelerating inflation rate of unemployment): rate of unemployment at which there is no tendency for inflation to change

See Figure 4


QUESTIONS AND PROBLEMS: 4, 8, 10, 12, 14, 16, 18, 20

 

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