Research Related to the Simon Center for Regional Forecasting at Saint Louis University

Below are papers, reports, etc. relating to some of my research activities at the Simon Center for Regional Forecasting. Feel free to contact me if you have questions, comments, etc. about this research.

·        Jack Strauss (Director of the Simon Center) and I are pursing a research project examining the determinants of housing price fluctuations in individual U.S. states, including Missouri:

o       “A Tale of Two States: Forecasting Housing Price Growth in Florida and Missouri” (slides for a presentation at the Simon Center conference in February 2008)

o       “Differences in Housing Price Forecastability Across U.S. States,” with Jack K. Strauss, International Journal of Forecasting, forthcoming

o       “Forecasting Real Housing Price Growth in the Eighth District States”, with Jack K. Strauss, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Regional Economic Development, Vol. 3, No. 2 (November 2007), pp. 33-42

·        We are also involved in research projects that estimate the effects of changes in housing wealth on consumption in individual U.S. states:

o       “Habit Formation, Heterogeneity, and Housing Wealth Effects Across U.S. States” (slides for a presentation at the Missouri Economics Conference on March 30, 2007)

o       “The Long-Run Relationship Between Consumption and Housing Wealth in the Eighth District States,” with Jack K. Strauss, Regional Economic Development, Vol. 2, No. 2 (October 2006), pp. 140-147

·        The following papers describe and analyze some of the combining methods used to generate the Simon Center forecasts:

o       “Bagging or Combining (or Both)? An Analysis Based on Forecasting U.S. Employment Growth,” with Jack K. Strauss, Econometrics Reviews, forthcoming

o       “Forecasting U.S. Employment Growth Using Forecast Combining Methods,” with Jack K. Strauss, Journal of Forecasting, Vol. 27, No. 1 (January 2008), pp. 75-93
Appendix of Additional Results

o       “Forecasting Employment Growth in Missouri with Many Potentially Relevant Predictors: An Analysis of Forecast Combining Methods,” with Jack K. Strauss, Federal Reserve Bank of Saint Louis Regional Economic Development, Vol. 1, No. 1 (2005), pp. 97-112

·        The Simon Center’s forecasts are presented at an annual conference

o       Report with 2008 Forecasts

o       Report with 2007 Forecasts

o       Report with 2006 Forecasts

·        Simon Center Quarterly Bulletins provide perspective on economic trends affecting the Missouri/St. Louis regions

o       Quarterly Bulletin 2007(1)